The answer to this question is now being asked by the people of Afghanistan. What would be the outcome of the Afghanistan peace talks? Who has kept the dream of peace in their eyes for two hundred years?
How does the world view Afghanistan? What does peace in Afghanistan mean to the world powers? These are important questions to understand the Afghan peace dialogue in Doha next week.
History Of Afghanistan Peace Talks
The Afghan harmony measure contains the recommendations and arrangements in an offer to end the continuous battle in Afghanistan. Albeit irregular endeavours have occurred since the war started in 2001, arrangements and the harmony development heightened in 2018 in the midst of talks between the Taliban. It is the fundamental radical gathering battling against the Afghan government, American soldiers; and the United States.
In this many great officers keep a presence inside the nation to help the Afghan government. Besides the United States, provincial powers, for example, Pakistan, China, India, and Russia, just as NATO have an influence in encouraging the harmony cycle.
Two ceasefires have been marked up until Afghan peace talks: an understanding between the Afghan legislature of President Ashraf Ghani and the Hezb-I Islami Gulbuddin assailant bunch on September 22, 2016. And a contingent arrangement between the U.S. also, the Taliban on February 29, 2020, which requires the withdrawal of American soldiers inside 14 months. If the Taliban maintain the details of the agreement.
After the understanding between the U.S. furthermore, the Taliban, extremist assaults against Afghan security powers were accounted for to have flooded in the country. Notwithstanding, the Afghan peace process between authorities from the Afghan state and the Taliban are continuous since September 2020 in Doha, Qatar.
A Political Background Of Afghanistan
Before moving further towards the presence of Military and political groups in Afghanistan and future of Afghanistan peace talks, there is a need to look at the political history of Afghanistan and about the status of Afghanistan in South Asia. It is still supposed that Afghanistan has the same identity which was bestowed/picturised by Britain to ameer Ali.
Very few people know that Ameer Yaqub Ali was made the first ruler of Afghanistan by the British. He had so many difficulties in establishing the state writ of the various tribes of Afghanistan, and the pressure from the British to achieve this goal was so great that he resigned saying that
“I’d rather be your scavenger instead.”
After that, the British made Ameer Abdul Rahman the king of Afghanistan. Ameer Abdul Rahman was a strict man of religious temperament. He decided to unite Afghanistan by Islamizing and Pashtunizing it. Under the Durand Line Treaty, where the British took the districts of Pishin and Zhob from Afghanistan, the area from West Chitral to Wakhan was added to Afghanistan in return.
The people of this area were non-Muslim Kailash. Therefore, the first resurrection passed on them, they were given the option to accept either Islam or the sword. Only he who converted to Islam survived. After that, he was given a new identity of “Nuristani”. That is what they are called today.
The Hazara tribes also fell victim to this rebuke because they were Shiites. Many Hazaras were slaughtered and many were enslaved and sold. On the contrary, Hazara was recognized as a slave in Afghan law at that time.
This legal status of their slavery came to an end much later, during the reign of Zahir Shah, after which they too were recognized as free citizens. Similarly, the Tajiks, who lived in northern Afghanistan from Badakhshan to Kabul, were deprived of fertile agricultural land and handed over to the Pashtun chiefs of the south. Due to which the Tajiks became their slaves.
After that Ameer Amanullah though was a modernist ruler. The status of the ulema in his court did not remain the same as in the earlier period, but his oppression of the non-Pashtun population remained the same. However, the religious element had left the Afghan monarchy and only Pashtun racism remained.
Then the next king Nadir Shah was assassinated by a Hazara. Hazaras say that during the reign of these kings, their settlements were so severely besieged that sometimes people were fed up with hunger and were forced to cook dung and eat it.
The Political and Military Groups in Afghanistan
There are currently three major political currents or forces in Afghanistan.
- The Taliban, who have enormous power and support in Pashtun rural society.
- The leadership of the North, which has the support of the people of the North to Kabul.
- The third one is the Pashtun elite, which has strong support from the Afghan establishment and the urban Pashtun population.
But these three parties are not ready to trust each other. Neighbouring countries and their interests add to the complexity of the situation. Where Pakistan, China, Russia, and Central Asian countries have an interest in restoring peace and order in Afghanistan via Afghanistan peace talks with the US. To build trade routes here, India sees an advantage in continuing instability and civil war in Afghanistan. So that Pakistan and China cannot build trade routes from here, and instability here continues to destabilize Pakistan.
Afghanistan, Once Again, Stands In The 80s
The prevailing opinion about Iran is that it will also join the first group. Because its interest is also in a peaceful Afghanistan. So that they can build a trade corridor from here to China.
The problem in Afghanistan is not just the US Taliban peace talks or Russia, or Afghanistan peace talks with the USA. History of Afghanistan has shown that after the departure of Russia. The Afghan tribes had to fight among themselves, due to which the whole country was on the edge of civil war. Today, Afghanistan is back in the decade of 1989. As long as the United States existed, the Pashtun elite and the Northern Alliance remained united under its umbrella.
One reason was opposition to the Taliban. But now that the Americans are returning, despite the best efforts and protests of the Afghan elite, they have no intention of stopping. Suppressed fears and mutual mistrust are rising again. Looking at Abdullah Abdullah’s behaviour from this point of view, the real situation can be understood.
There is indeed a common opposition between the Pashtun elite and Abdullah Abdullah and others. But while non-Pashtuns and people of the north remember Ameer Abdul Rahman in the form of the Taliban, they see the image of Ameer Amanullah in the secular Pashtun elite. “Pashtun ethnic oppression” was equally present in both of them.
Afghanistan Peace Process & The the Future of Afghanistan
After analyzing the history of Afghanistan, if we talk about the future of Afghanistan considering Afghan peace talks, Abdullah Abdullah, on the one hand, threatens to secede in the form of an independent Khurasan, on the other hand, hints at secession from secession if Afghanistan becomes a federation.
However, Ashraf Ghani and the Pashtun elite are also unwilling to recognize Afghanistan as a federation. It may be recalled that Ashraf Ghani had also offered the post of Army Chief to General Rashid Dostum to unite the militant Uzbek tribes. What he rejected, it is not difficult to estimate the overall thinking and fears of the North.
Also have a look on: Challenges To Afghanistan After US-Taliban Peace Deal
Friends who have been watching Afghanistan’s internal politics will recall that for many years during the American era, the political leadership of the North, including Ahmad Shah Massoud’s brother, called for a federation of Afghanistan, which the Pashtun leadership always rejected and keep doing
We now have a very different and complex situation. The question now is, will we be able to understand the complexity of Afghan peace talks or US Taliban peace talks? Will the forces involved in the Afghanistan peace talks be able to formulate a better policy for the future of Afghanistan, or will we continue to make decisions with our interests in mind?